Sudtirol 0-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Venezia at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Venezia.

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Match Analysis

Sudtirol host Venezia at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Venezia away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 1.10 PPG, Venezia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sudtirol have won 2, Venezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Sudtirol 3–2 Venezia — a Sudtirol win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 34% | Venezia 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Venezia surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.22 xG and Venezia 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.852 / defence 1.056 | Venezia attack 1.082 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 61 games and Venezia's last 61.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 27% | Venezia 40%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.04 | Draw 3.64 | Venezia 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 40% (last 10 away games).

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