Bari 1-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Feralpisalo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Feralpisalo meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Feralpisalo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bari against 1.40 for Feralpisalo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Feralpisalo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bari lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feralpisalo half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 58% versus Feralpisalo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Feralpisalo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.57 xG and Feralpisalo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.955 / defence 0.995 | Feralpisalo attack 0.785 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Bari games / 24 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 21%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Feralpisalo 4.76. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bari 60% | Feralpisalo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Bari 1.57 / Feralpisalo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.955 / def 0.995 | Feralpisalo attack 0.785 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Bari (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Feralpisalo xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Bari vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Feralpisalo?
Bari 1 - 0 Feralpisalo.
Where is Bari vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Feralpisalo part of?
Bari vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 51% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bari and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Feralpisalo?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 1 | Feralpisalo 0W.
What form are Bari and Feralpisalo in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Feralpisalo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bari's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Feralpisalo's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.79x) against Bari's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.59
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Bari xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Feralpisalo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
22.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Bari and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bari and 0.94 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari's recent record stands at 6W 12D 6L from 24 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 13L across 24 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Bari against 0.88 for Feralpisalo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bari have managed 4W 6D 2L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 1.12 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 6W 12D 6L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Feralpisalo away?
Bari's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.50 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bari
1
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Bari 1-0 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Feralpisalo?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 58%, Feralpisalo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bari) and 58% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 33% of games; Feralpisalo in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Feralpisalo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bari's games and 58% of Feralpisalo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bari's recent games and 58% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Feralpisalo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Feralpisalo 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.57 xG and Feralpisalo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feralpisalo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Feralpisalo attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 51% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 21%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Feralpisalo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.25 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.