Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Cremonese at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ascoli — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ascoli have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cremonese away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ascoli's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Cremonese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Ascoli 2–2 Cremonese — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Cremonese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.831 / defence 1.059 | Cremonese attack 0.953 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.207. Data: built from Ascoli's last 62 games and Cremonese's last 24.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 42%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.73 | Draw 3.17 | Cremonese 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ascoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Ascoli 0.93 / Cremonese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.831 / def 1.059 | Cremonese attack 0.953 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cremonese xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ascoli vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Ascoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Ascoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Ascoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cremonese part of?
Ascoli vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 27% chance of winning, Cremonese a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ascoli and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Ascoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ascoli's last 62 games and Cremonese's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
27%
3.73
32%
3.17
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.14
1.22
Cremonese xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ascoli vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.22 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli's recent record stands at 17W 18D 27L from 62 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 26L across 62 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.11 PPG, Cremonese on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 9W 9D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Ascoli (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ascoli
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Ascoli vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cremonese away?
Ascoli's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.20 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won Ascoli 1-4 Cremonese.
Ascoli's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Ascoli vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2024: Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Cremonese 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ascoli) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Cremonese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ascoli vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ascoli and Cremonese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ascoli's games and 60% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ascoli and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ascoli's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ascoli's recent matches and 57% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 25, as Ascoli and Cremonese drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 42%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Cremonese 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.11 PPG, Cremonese 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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