Ternana 0-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ternana take on Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Venezia at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ternana — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Ternana have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Venezia have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ternana, 2 for Venezia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Ternana 1–4 Venezia — a Venezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 51% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Venezia 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ternana surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.89 xG and Venezia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.929 / defence 0.883 | Venezia attack 0.896 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.216. Data: built from Ternana's last 49 games and Venezia's last 49.
Result probabilities: Ternana 30% | Draw 37% | Venezia 34%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.38 | Draw 2.71 | Venezia 2.98. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ternana 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 30% | Draw 37% | Venezia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Ternana 0.89 / Venezia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.929 / def 0.883 | Venezia attack 0.896 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Venezia xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Venezia kick off?
Ternana vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Venezia?
Ternana 0 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Ternana vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Venezia part of?
Ternana vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 30% chance of winning, Venezia a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ternana and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Ternana vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.93) and Venezia's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 49 games and Venezia's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
37%
2.71
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.85
0.96
Venezia xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Ternana and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ternana and 0.96 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ternana come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 13D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (19W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Ternana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ternana's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across their last 25 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.37 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Ternana (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Ternana vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Venezia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 12W 13D 24L in their last 49 games (1.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Venezia away?
Ternana's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.36 PPG; Venezia away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Ternana or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Venezia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when Venezia won Ternana 1-4 Venezia.
Ternana's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ternana
0
Draws
4
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Venezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 0, Venezia have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Venezia 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 44%, Venezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ternana) and 44% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 28% of games; Venezia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ternana's recent matches and 56% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Ternana's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.89 xG and Venezia 0.96 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Venezia attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 30% | Draw 37% | Venezia 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Venezia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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