Cosenza 1-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cosenza welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Feralpisalo — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
On current form, Cosenza have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Feralpisalo trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 46% versus Feralpisalo 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 54% | Feralpisalo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 2.14 xG and Feralpisalo 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.280 / defence 0.971 | Feralpisalo attack 0.624 / defence 1.532. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.216. Cosenza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.532 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Cosenza games / 11 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 68% | Draw 22% | Feralpisalo 10%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Feralpisalo 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Cosenza (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Feralpisalo 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 68% | Draw 22% | Feralpisalo 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG Cosenza 2.14 / Feralpisalo 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.280 / def 0.971 | Feralpisalo attack 0.624 / def 1.532 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Feralpisalo xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Cosenza vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Cosenza vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Feralpisalo part of?
Cosenza vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 68% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cosenza and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Feralpisalo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Feralpisalo in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Feralpisalo (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Feralpisalo's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.60
10%
9.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.87
0.74
Feralpisalo xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
9.92
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
84.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.74 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Feralpisalo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 8L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.45 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Feralpisalo away?
Cosenza's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.40 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
2
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Feralpisalo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Cosenza and 80% for Feralpisalo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Feralpisalo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Feralpisalo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cosenza's recent matches and 40% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Cosenza's matches and 80% of Feralpisalo's.
Do Cosenza and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Feralpisalo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Feralpisalo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 2.14 xG and Feralpisalo 0.74 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Feralpisalo attack 0.62 / defence 1.53, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 68% | Draw 22% | Feralpisalo 10%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 54%, Feralpisalo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.