Parma 2-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Sudtirol at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sudtirol away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Parma have won 0, Sudtirol 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Parma 0–0 Sudtirol — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 47% versus Sudtirol 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 43% | Sudtirol 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.20 xG and Sudtirol 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.148 / defence 0.783 | Sudtirol attack 0.982 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.200. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Sudtirol's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 49 games and Sudtirol's last 48.
Result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.46 | Draw 3.06 | Sudtirol 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 50% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Parma 1.20 / Sudtirol 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.148 / def 0.783 | Sudtirol attack 0.982 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Parma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sudtirol xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Parma vs Sudtirol kick off?
Parma vs Sudtirol kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Sudtirol?
Parma 2 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Parma vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Sudtirol part of?
Parma vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 41% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Parma and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Parma vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 49 games and Sudtirol's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.06
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Parma xG
Total xG
2.12
0.92
Sudtirol xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Parma and 0.92 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Parma have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 13D 13L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 20W 20D 11L from 51 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.73 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 4D 6L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 10W 8D 7L from their last 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.10 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Sudtirol in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Parma vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 20D 11L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Sudtirol away?
Parma's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.96 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Parma or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sudtirol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Sudtirol 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 40%, Sudtirol 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Parma and 24% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sudtirol in 48%; Parma have failed to score in 28% of games; Sudtirol in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Parma's recent matches and 32% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Parma's recent games and 24% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Parma's recent matches and 64% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.20 xG and Sudtirol 0.92 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Sudtirol attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 41% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Sudtirol 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.73 PPG, Sudtirol 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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