Venezia 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Pisa in Serie B (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Venezia have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Pisa have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Venezia's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Venezia 1–1 Pisa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Pisa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.17 xG and Pisa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.344 / defence 1.000 | Pisa attack 0.725 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.194. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.344 — their 1.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Pisa's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Venezia's last 48 games and Pisa's last 48.
Result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 35% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.47 | Draw 2.89 | Pisa 4.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 35% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Venezia 1.17 / Pisa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.344 / def 1.000 | Pisa attack 0.725 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Venezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Pisa xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Pisa kick off?
Venezia vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Pisa?
Venezia 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Venezia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Pisa part of?
Venezia vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Venezia and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Venezia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Venezia's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.72x) against Venezia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 48 games and Pisa's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
41%
2.47
35%
2.89
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.04
0.87
Pisa xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Venezia and 0.87 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia's recent record stands at 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 17L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Venezia against 1.23 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 10W 6D 7L from their last 23 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 11D 6L across their last 23 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.19 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Pisa have gone 14W 17D 17L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Pisa away?
Venezia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.57 PPG; Pisa away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Venezia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Venezia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pisa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Pisa 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Pisa?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Pisa 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Venezia) and 26% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 48%; Pisa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Venezia's recent matches and 39% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Venezia and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Venezia's recent games and 26% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Venezia's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.17 xG and Pisa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.34 / defence 1.00 against Pisa attack 0.72 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 41% | Draw 35% | Pisa 25%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Pisa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.40 PPG, Pisa 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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