Spezia 2-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Spezia take on Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Ternana travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 0.80 PPG, Ternana 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Ternana trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 44% versus Ternana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 50% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.85 xG and Ternana 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.573 / defence 0.900 | Ternana attack 0.885 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.169. Spezia's attack strength of 0.573 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Spezia games / 50 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 30% | Draw 36% | Ternana 34%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Ternana 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 20% | Ternana 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 30% | Draw 36% | Ternana 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Spezia 0.85 / Ternana 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.573 / def 0.900 | Ternana attack 0.885 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ternana xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Ternana kick off?
Spezia vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Ternana?
Spezia 2 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Spezia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Ternana part of?
Spezia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 30% chance of winning, Ternana a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Spezia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Ternana in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Ternana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.57x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
36%
2.78
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.78
0.93
Ternana xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 15.7 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Spezia and 0.93 for Ternana, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 6W 19D 25L from 50 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 25L across 50 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.74 PPG, Ternana on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 3W 11D 10L from 24 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 3W 6D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.94 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 6W 19D 25L in their last 50 games (0.74 PPG), while Ternana have gone 12W 13D 25L in their last 50 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Ternana away?
Spezia's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.83 PPG; Ternana away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Spezia or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Ternana in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Ternana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spezia
2
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Ternana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Ternana 1-1 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Ternana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 62% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 50% of games; Ternana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Spezia's recent matches and 58% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Spezia's matches and 62% of Ternana's.
Do Spezia and Ternana tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ternana in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Ternana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 13, as Spezia and Ternana drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.85 xG and Ternana 0.93 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.57 / defence 0.90 against Ternana attack 0.89 / defence 1.35, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 30% | Draw 36% | Ternana 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 50%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.74 PPG, Ternana 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.