Como 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Parma at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Como face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie B (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Current Form
Como's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Como's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Parma edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Como 1–2 Parma — a Parma win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Como — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 49% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 43% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.26 xG and Parma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.056 / defence 0.937 | Parma attack 1.191 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.221. Data: built from Como's last 63 games and Parma's last 63.
Result probabilities: Como 34% | Draw 28% | Parma 38%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.97 | Draw 3.59 | Parma 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Como 40% (last 10 home games) | Parma 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 34% | Draw 28% | Parma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Como 1.26 / Parma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.056 / def 0.937 | Parma attack 1.191 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Parma xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Parma FAQs
What time does Como vs Parma kick off?
Como vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Parma?
Como 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Como vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Parma part of?
Como vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Como a 34% chance of winning, Parma a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Como and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Como vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Como's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.19x) against Como's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Como's last 63 games and Parma's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.59
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Como xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Parma xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Como and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Como and 1.36 for Parma, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 23D 17L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.81 PPG from 63 outings (33W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Como against 1.81 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Como's home form reads 15W 10D 6L across their last 31 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.52 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Parma
Blended
Como (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Como vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Como and Parma in coming into this match?
Como have gone 23W 23D 17L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Parma have gone 33W 15D 15L in their last 63 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Parma away?
Como's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.77 PPG; Parma away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Como or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Parma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Como have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Como
3
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 4, Parma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Como and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Como 2-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Como and Parma?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 52%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Como) and 52% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Parma in 32%; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Como's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Como and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Como's recent games and 52% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Como's recent matches and 74% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como and Parma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.26 xG and Parma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Parma attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 34% | Draw 28% | Parma 38%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 43%, Parma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.46 PPG, Parma 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 26
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →