Cremonese 2-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Palermo.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cremonese and Palermo meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Cremonese's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Palermo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Palermo's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Cremonese against 2.10 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Palermo edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Cremonese 2–3 Palermo — a Palermo win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 48% versus Palermo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Palermo 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.22 xG and Palermo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.909 / defence 0.725 | Palermo attack 1.096 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.227. Cremonese have a tight defence (rating 0.725), which is pulling Palermo's projected output down. Data: built from Cremonese's last 25 games and Palermo's last 63.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 31% | Palermo 28%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.48 | Draw 3.19 | Palermo 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).

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