Everton 2-0 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Everton face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Everton welcome Liverpool to Goodison Park in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Everton have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Everton's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Everton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Liverpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Everton's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Liverpool have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Everton.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Everton 0–2 Liverpool — a Liverpool win.
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 65%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Liverpool 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Liverpool 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 65% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.05 xG and Liverpool 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.783 / defence 0.817 | Liverpool attack 1.296 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.523. Everton's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Liverpool bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Everton's projected output down. Liverpool have an above-average attack rating of 1.296, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from Everton's last 71 games and Liverpool's last 71.
Result probabilities: Everton 24% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 50%. Fair-value odds: Everton 4.16 | Draw 3.84 | Liverpool 2.00. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton 40% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 24% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Everton 1.05 / Liverpool 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.783 / def 0.817 | Liverpool attack 1.296 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Liverpool xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Liverpool FAQs
What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off?
Everton vs Liverpool kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton 2 - 0 Liverpool.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Liverpool part of?
Everton vs Liverpool is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 24% chance of winning, Liverpool a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Everton and Liverpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.78x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 71 games and Liverpool's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
24%
4.16
26%
3.84
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Everton xG
Total xG
2.66
1.61
Liverpool xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
20.85
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Liverpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Everton and 1.61 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 71 games, going 18W 20D 33L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 1.99 PPG from 71 outings (41W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 11W 7D 17L across their last 35 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 35 away games (15W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Liverpool's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 61%.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
Everton (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
❓ Everton vs Liverpool Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 18W 20D 33L in their last 71 games (1.04 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 41W 18D 12L in their last 71 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.14 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Everton or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Liverpool in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Liverpool have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won Everton 1-4 Liverpool.
Everton's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Liverpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 1, Liverpool have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Liverpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 40%, Liverpool 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Everton) and 66% (Liverpool).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Liverpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Liverpool matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Everton's recent matches and 63% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Liverpool matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Everton's recent games and 66% of Liverpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Liverpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Everton's recent matches and 74% of Liverpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Liverpool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Liverpool 2-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.05 xG and Liverpool 1.61 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Liverpool landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.78 / defence 0.82 against Liverpool attack 1.30 / defence 0.76, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 24% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 50%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Liverpool's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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