Burnley 2-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Brentford travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brentford stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brentford have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Burnley 0.30 PPG, Brentford 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Burnley, 2 for Brentford and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Brentford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Brentford in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Brentford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 59% | Brentford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.08 xG and Brentford 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.621 / defence 1.352 | Brentford attack 0.856 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.579. Burnley's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Burnley games / 66 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 22% | Draw 24% | Brentford 55%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Brentford 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Brentford (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brentford are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Brentford 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 22% | Draw 24% | Brentford 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Burnley 1.08 / Brentford 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.621 / def 1.352 | Brentford attack 0.856 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.579 • Poisson stance: Brentford (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Brentford xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Brentford kick off?
Burnley vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Burnley 2 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Burnley vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brentford part of?
Burnley vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 22% chance of winning, Brentford a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burnley and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | Brentford 2W.
What form are Burnley and Brentford in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Brentford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
22%
4.57
24%
4.23
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.91
1.83
Brentford xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
4%
28.43
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Burnley and 1.83 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brentford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 29W 15D 22L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Brentford's form line: 22W 19D 25L from 66 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.55 PPG, Brentford on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.61 PPG from 33 outings (16W 5D 12L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 8W 8D 17L from 33 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Brentford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Brentford in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 15D 22L in their last 66 games (1.55 PPG), while Brentford have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brentford away?
Burnley's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.61 PPG; Brentford away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Brentford in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Brentford won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
4
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Brentford have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Burnley 3-4 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 42%, Brentford 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Burnley) and 48% (Brentford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brentford in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burnley's recent matches and 48% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Burnley's matches and 48% of Brentford's.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Brentford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Brentford 2-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.08 xG and Brentford 1.83 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brentford landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Brentford attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 22% | Draw 24% | Brentford 55%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 59%, Brentford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.55 PPG, Brentford 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.