Fulham 1-3 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Liverpool make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fulham have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Craven Cottage. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Liverpool (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Liverpool's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Fulham, 2.00 for Liverpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fulham 0W, Liverpool 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 3–4 with Liverpool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Liverpool 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 64% | Liverpool 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.40 xG and Liverpool 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.012 / defence 0.725 | Liverpool attack 1.185 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.521. Liverpool's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fulham's defence rating of 0.725 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Fulham games / 70 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Liverpool 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 30% | Liverpool 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Fulham 1.40 / Liverpool 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.012 / def 0.725 | Liverpool attack 1.185 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Fulham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Liverpool xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Liverpool kick off?
Fulham vs Liverpool kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Liverpool?
Fulham 1 - 3 Liverpool.
Where is Fulham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Liverpool part of?
Fulham vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 38% chance of winning, Liverpool a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fulham and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Liverpool?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 1 | Liverpool 2W.
What form are Fulham and Liverpool in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.01) and Liverpool's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.19x) against Fulham's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.64
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.70
1.31
Liverpool xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fulham and 1.31 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 27W 12D 31L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Liverpool's form line: 40W 18D 12L from 70 games, 1.97 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.65 PPG from 34 outings (17W 5D 12L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 14W 10D 10L from 34 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Liverpool's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.10 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 60%.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 12D 31L in their last 70 games (1.33 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 40W 18D 12L in their last 70 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Liverpool away?
Fulham's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.65 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Fulham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Liverpool in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
3
Draws
4
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Liverpool?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Liverpool have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Liverpool 2-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 50%, Liverpool 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Fulham and 65% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fulham's games and 62% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 65% of Liverpool's.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Fulham 1-3 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.40 xG and Liverpool 1.31 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Liverpool outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Liverpool attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 38% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 34%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 64%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.