West Ham 2-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Liverpool (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as West Ham face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 3W 5D 2L at London Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Liverpool (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Liverpool are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Liverpool hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Liverpool winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Liverpool have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 54% versus Liverpool 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 51% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.19 xG and Liverpool 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.834 / defence 1.046 | Liverpool attack 1.189 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.524. Data: 72 West Ham games / 72 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 23% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 53%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Liverpool 1.89. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 50% | Liverpool 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 23% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG West Ham 1.19 / Liverpool 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.834 / def 1.046 | Liverpool attack 1.189 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Liverpool xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Liverpool kick off?
West Ham vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
West Ham 2 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is West Ham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Liverpool part of?
West Ham vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 23% chance of winning, Liverpool a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both West Ham and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
Record (5 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 4W.
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Ham's attack at 0.83x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.19x) against West Ham's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
23%
4.30
23%
4.27
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.09
1.90
Liverpool xG
4.30
23%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
3%
28.58
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are West Ham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for West Ham and 1.90 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 24W 16D 32L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Liverpool's form line: 41W 18D 13L from 72 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (14W 11D 11L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 15W 10D 11L from 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Liverpool's season.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 24W 16D 32L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 41W 18D 13L in their last 72 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.47 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.53 PPG.
Have West Ham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Liverpool in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Liverpool go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 0-5 on 29 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 1, Liverpool have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Liverpool 5-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 53%, Liverpool 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (West Ham) and 64% (Liverpool).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of West Ham's games and 61% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of West Ham's recent games and 64% of Liverpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham and Liverpool share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as West Ham and Liverpool drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.19 xG and Liverpool 1.90 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Liverpool attack 1.19 / defence 0.81, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 23% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 53%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 51%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.