West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Ham face Aston Villa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Aston Villa in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
West Ham's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Aston Villa's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Aston Villa have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, West Ham edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended West Ham 1–4 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 52% versus Aston Villa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 52% | Aston Villa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.51 xG and Aston Villa 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.999 / defence 1.113 | Aston Villa attack 1.145 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.557. Data: built from West Ham's last 66 games and Aston Villa's last 66.
Result probabilities: West Ham 29% | Draw 23% | Aston Villa 48%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.44 | Draw 4.40 | Aston Villa 2.07. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 50% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 29% | Draw 23% | Aston Villa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG West Ham 1.51 / Aston Villa 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.999 / def 1.113 | Aston Villa attack 1.145 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Aston Villa xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Aston Villa FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Aston Villa kick off?
West Ham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Aston Villa?
West Ham 1 - 1 Aston Villa.
Where is West Ham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Aston Villa part of?
West Ham vs Aston Villa is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 29% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both West Ham and Aston Villa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.00x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (1.15x) against West Ham's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 66 games and Aston Villa's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
29%
3.44
23%
4.40
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.49
1.98
Aston Villa xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
14%
7.26
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
4%
25.00
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Aston Villa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are West Ham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for West Ham and 1.98 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Ham's recent record stands at 23W 14D 29L from 66 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have gone 35W 11D 20L across 66 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aston Villa by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over West Ham heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 14W 9D 10L from their last 33 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aston Villa's away record stands at 13W 8D 12L across their last 33 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Ham are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.67 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
West Ham (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ West Ham vs Aston Villa Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 23W 14D 29L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 35W 11D 20L in their last 66 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Aston Villa away?
West Ham's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.55 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Aston Villa have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Ham won Aston Villa 1-4 West Ham on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Aston Villa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Aston Villa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 3, Aston Villa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Aston Villa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 52%, Aston Villa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (West Ham) and 52% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Aston Villa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Aston Villa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Aston Villa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of West Ham's recent matches and 54% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Ham and Aston Villa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of West Ham's recent games and 52% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Ham and Aston Villa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of West Ham's recent matches and 76% of Aston Villa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Ham and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as West Ham and Aston Villa drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.51 xG and Aston Villa 1.98 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Aston Villa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Aston Villa attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 29% | Draw 23% | Aston Villa 48%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 52%, Aston Villa 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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