Hull City 3-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and QPR meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 43). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hull City at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hull City, 1.80 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Hull City, 3 for QPR and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Hull City 0–2 QPR — a QPR win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 58% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | QPR 47%). Note also that QPR surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.89 xG and QPR 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.913 / defence 1.090 | QPR attack 0.800 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. QPR bring a tight defence (rating 0.734, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hull City's projected output down. Data: built from Hull City's last 87 games and QPR's last 88.
Result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 32% | QPR 37%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.24 | Draw 3.16 | QPR 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 32% | QPR 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Hull City 0.89 / QPR 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.913 / def 1.090 | QPR attack 0.800 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: QPR (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.01
QPR xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs QPR FAQs
What time does Hull City vs QPR kick off?
Hull City vs QPR kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs QPR?
Hull City 3 - 0 QPR.
Where is Hull City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs QPR part of?
Hull City vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 31% chance of winning, QPR a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hull City and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Hull City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.91) and QPR's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.80x) against Hull City's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 87 games and QPR's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
31%
3.24
32%
3.16
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.91
1.01
QPR xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Hull City and 1.01 for QPR, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City's recent record stands at 31W 27D 29L from 87 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 40L across 87 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Hull City against 1.11 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 15W 14D 14L from their last 43 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 14W 11D 18L across their last 43 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.97 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and QPR in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 31W 27D 29L in their last 87 games (1.38 PPG), while QPR have gone 25W 22D 40L in their last 87 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or QPR away?
Hull City's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.37 PPG; QPR away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Hull City and QPR, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won Hull City 0-3 QPR on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 3, QPR have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 30%; Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hull City's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hull City's recent matches and 60% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat QPR 3-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.89 xG and QPR 1.01 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against QPR attack 0.80 / defence 0.73, drawn from 87/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 31% | Draw 32% | QPR 37%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.38 PPG, QPR 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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