Watford 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Watford vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Vicarage Road to face Watford in Championship (matchday 44). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Watford (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Watford have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hull City have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hull City are 0.60 PPG clear of Watford over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Watford's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Watford's games and 80% of Hull City's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Watford 2–1 Hull City — a Watford win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Watford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Watford 50% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Watford 46% | Hull City 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Watford surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Hull City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Watford 1.28 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Watford attack 0.903 / defence 1.174 | Hull City attack 1.199 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.141. Data: built from Watford's last 89 games and Hull City's last 88.
Result probabilities: Watford 31% | Draw 24% | Hull City 45%. Fair-value odds: Watford 3.27 | Draw 4.09 | Hull City 2.22. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Watford's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Watford 80% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Watford vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: Vicarage Road • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Watford 31% | Draw 24% | Hull City 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Watford 1.28 / Hull City 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Watford attack 0.903 / def 1.174 | Hull City attack 1.199 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Hull City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Watford xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Hull City xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Watford vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Watford vs Hull City kick off?
Watford vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Vicarage Road.
What was the final score in Watford vs Hull City?
Watford 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Watford vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Vicarage Road.
What competition is Watford vs Hull City part of?
Watford vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Watford vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Watford a 31% chance of winning, Hull City a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Watford and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Watford vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Watford's attack rating (0.90) and Hull City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.20x) against Watford's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Watford's last 89 games and Hull City's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.09
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Watford xG
Total xG
2.89
1.61
Hull City xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Watford vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Watford vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Watford and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Watford and 1.61 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Watford vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Watford come into this having played 88 games, going 27W 31D 30L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.40 PPG from 88 outings (32W 27D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Watford against 1.40 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Watford's home form reads 15W 14D 14L across their last 43 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 43 away games (15W 13D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Watford are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Watford
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Watford (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Watford
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Watford vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Watford and Hull City in coming into this match?
Watford have gone 27W 31D 30L in their last 88 games (1.27 PPG), while Hull City have gone 32W 27D 29L in their last 88 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Watford at home or Hull City away?
Watford's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Watford at home: 1.37 PPG; Hull City away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Watford or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Watford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Watford have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Watford
4
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Watford vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Hull City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Watford have won 3, Hull City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Watford and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Hull City 0-0 Watford.
Who has won more matches between Watford and Hull City?
Watford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Watford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Watford 56%, Hull City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Watford) and 58% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Watford keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Watford home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Watford vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Watford and Hull City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Watford's games and 60% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Watford and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Watford's recent games and 58% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Watford and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Watford's recent matches and 67% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Watford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 44, as Watford and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.28 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Watford fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Hull City attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Watford 31% | Draw 24% | Hull City 45%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 46%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Watford's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Watford 1.27 PPG, Hull City 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Watford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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