QPR 1-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Preston at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Preston at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 44). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, QPR have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
QPR's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Preston have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — QPR at 1.50 PPG versus Preston's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, QPR have won 2, Preston 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended QPR 2–0 Preston — a QPR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Preston in-play and half-time data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Preston 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 47% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.02 xG and Preston 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.843 / defence 1.242 | Preston attack 0.809 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.134. QPR's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Preston's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 89 games and Preston's last 89.
Result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 29% | Preston 38%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.11 | Draw 3.40 | Preston 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Preston as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 70% (last 10 home games) | Preston 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 44 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 29% | Preston 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG QPR 1.02 / Preston 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.843 / def 1.242 | Preston attack 0.809 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Preston (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Preston xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Preston FAQs
What time does QPR vs Preston kick off?
QPR vs Preston kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Preston?
QPR 1 - 0 Preston.
Where is QPR vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Preston part of?
QPR vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 32% chance of winning, Preston a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both QPR and Preston will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will QPR vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
QPR's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 89 games and Preston's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
32%
3.11
29%
3.40
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
QPR xG
Total xG
2.16
1.14
Preston xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for QPR and 1.14 for Preston, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR's recent record stands at 25W 22D 42L from 89 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 35W 21D 33L across 89 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.09 PPG, Preston on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, QPR have managed 11W 11D 22L from their last 44 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preston's away record stands at 17W 10D 17L across their last 44 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.13 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Preston in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 25W 22D 42L in their last 89 games (1.09 PPG), while Preston have gone 35W 21D 33L in their last 89 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.00 PPG; Preston away: 1.39 PPG.
Have QPR or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Preston in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
QPR's record when hosting Preston specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
QPR
3
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Preston?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 5, Preston have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: QPR 2-2 Preston.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Preston?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Preston see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Preston 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 46% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 39%; QPR have failed to score in 39% of games; Preston in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Preston matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 39% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of QPR's recent matches and 54% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Preston 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Preston 1-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.02 xG and Preston 1.14 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Preston landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Preston attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 32% | Draw 29% | Preston 38%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 47%, Preston 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Preston's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.09 PPG, Preston 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 44
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →