Swansea 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Swansea at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Rotherham travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rotherham away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Swansea are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Swansea, 0 for Rotherham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Rotherham trading profile (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 59% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 57% | Rotherham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 2.21 xG and Rotherham 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.966 / defence 1.042 | Rotherham attack 0.671 / defence 1.719. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. Rotherham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.719 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 88 Swansea games / 88 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 69% | Draw 18% | Rotherham 12%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Rotherham 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 40% | Rotherham 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 69% | Draw 18% | Rotherham 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 50% | xG Swansea 2.21 / Rotherham 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.966 / def 1.042 | Rotherham attack 0.671 / def 1.719 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Swansea (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Rotherham xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Rotherham kick off?
Swansea vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Rotherham?
Swansea 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Swansea vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Rotherham part of?
Swansea vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 69% chance of winning, Rotherham a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Swansea and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Rotherham?
Record (3 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 2 | Rotherham 0W.
What form are Swansea and Rotherham in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Rotherham (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.97x the league average against Rotherham's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.43
12%
8.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Swansea xG
Total xG
3.02
0.81
Rotherham xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
8.07
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
73.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Swansea and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Swansea and 0.81 for Rotherham, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea come into this having played 88 games, going 31W 23D 34L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 0.83 PPG from 88 outings (15W 28D 45L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Swansea carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Rotherham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Swansea's home form reads 18W 9D 17L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 0.48 points per game from 44 outings (2W 15D 27L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 0.92 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 88 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 31W 23D 34L in their last 88 games (1.32 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 15W 28D 45L in their last 88 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Rotherham away?
Swansea's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.43 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swansea and Rotherham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Swansea's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Swansea
2
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Rotherham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Swansea 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Rotherham?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 54%, Rotherham 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Swansea) and 50% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Swansea's recent matches and 39% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Rotherham tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Rotherham 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 2.21 xG and Rotherham 0.81 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Rotherham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Rotherham attack 0.67 / defence 1.72, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 69% | Draw 18% | Rotherham 12%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 57%, Rotherham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Swansea arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.