Swansea 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Swansea at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Rotherham encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Rotherham travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea in Championship (matchday 43). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Swansea have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Swansea have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rotherham stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Rotherham away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.

Swansea are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Swansea, 0 for Rotherham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Swansea 2–1 Rotherham — a Swansea win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Swansea trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Rotherham trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 59% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 57% | Rotherham 50%). Note also that Rotherham surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Swansea recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 2.21 xG and Rotherham 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.966 / defence 1.042 | Rotherham attack 0.671 / defence 1.719. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. Rotherham's defence rating of 1.719 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.671 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Swansea's last 88 games and Rotherham's last 88.

Result probabilities: Swansea 69% | Draw 18% | Rotherham 12%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.45 | Draw 5.43 | Rotherham 8.07. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swansea's last 10 home games and Rotherham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 40% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 40% (last 10 away games).

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