Ipswich 1-1 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ipswich face Middlesbrough.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Middlesbrough travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich in Championship (matchday 43). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ipswich — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Middlesbrough have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Middlesbrough have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 2.20 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Ipswich's games and 60% of Middlesbrough's (from Ipswich's last 10 home games and Middlesbrough's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Ipswich, 0 for Middlesbrough and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Ipswich 2–0 Middlesbrough — a Ipswich win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Middlesbrough in-play and half-time data (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 34%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 52% versus Middlesbrough 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 60% | Middlesbrough 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.08 xG and Middlesbrough 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.531 / defence 1.186 | Middlesbrough attack 1.178 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.164. Ipswich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.531 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ipswich's last 42 games and Middlesbrough's last 88.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 48% | Draw 21% | Middlesbrough 31%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.07 | Draw 4.74 | Middlesbrough 3.28. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and Middlesbrough's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 70% (last 10 home games) | Middlesbrough 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, matchday 43 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 48% | Draw 21% | Middlesbrough 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Ipswich 2.08 / Middlesbrough 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.531 / def 1.186 | Middlesbrough attack 1.178 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Middlesbrough xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Middlesbrough FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Ipswich vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Middlesbrough?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Middlesbrough.
Where is Ipswich vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Middlesbrough part of?
Ipswich vs Middlesbrough is a Championship fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 48% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Ipswich and Middlesbrough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ipswich vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 1.53x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 42 games and Middlesbrough's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
48%
2.07
21%
4.74
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.70
1.62
Middlesbrough xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
4%
26.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Middlesbrough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.62 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich's recent record stands at 54W 24D 10L from 88 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Middlesbrough, meanwhile, have gone 40W 17D 31L across 88 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Middlesbrough heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 31W 11D 2L from their last 44 home games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Middlesbrough's away record stands at 18W 7D 19L across their last 44 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.60 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Ipswich (Home) vs Middlesbrough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Ipswich vs Middlesbrough Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 54W 24D 10L in their last 88 games (2.11 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 40W 17D 31L in their last 88 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Middlesbrough away?
Ipswich's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.36 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Middlesbrough specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ipswich
2
Draws
1
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Middlesbrough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Middlesbrough?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Middlesbrough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Ipswich 2-2 Middlesbrough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 57%, Middlesbrough 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Ipswich and 70% for Middlesbrough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Middlesbrough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Middlesbrough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ipswich's games and 68% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ipswich and Middlesbrough matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Ipswich's matches and 70% of Middlesbrough's.
Do Ipswich and Middlesbrough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Ipswich's recent matches and 77% of Middlesbrough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and Middlesbrough finished level at 1-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.08 xG and Middlesbrough 1.62 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.53 / defence 1.19 against Middlesbrough attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 48% | Draw 21% | Middlesbrough 31%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 60%, Middlesbrough 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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