Teplice 2-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
České Budějovice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, České Budějovice have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Teplice against 1.20 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Teplice 3W, České Budějovice 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 60% versus České Budějovice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 53% | České Budějovice 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.848 / defence 0.831 | České Budějovice attack 0.828 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.239. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Teplice games / 58 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 60% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 16%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | České Budějovice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | České Budějovice 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 60% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Teplice 1.83 / České Budějovice 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.848 / def 0.831 | České Budějovice attack 0.828 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Teplice (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
České Budějovice xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Teplice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Teplice 2 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Teplice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs České Budějovice part of?
Teplice vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 60% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Record (5 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 2W.
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.85x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.83x) against Teplice's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.15
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.68
0.85
České Budějovice xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
38.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Teplice and 0.85 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 16D 24L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.00 PPG from 60 outings (17W 9D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Teplice against 1.00 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 12W 12D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.60 points per game from 30 outings (4W 6D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.13 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 17W 9D 34L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or České Budějovice away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
2
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, České Budějovice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and České Budějovice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 53%, České Budějovice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 63% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; České Budějovice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Teplice's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 63% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 29, as Teplice and České Budějovice drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.85 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 60% | Draw 24% | České Budějovice 16%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 53%, České Budějovice 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.27 PPG, České Budějovice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.