Karviná 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Karviná, 0.90 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Bohemians 1905 have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Karviná's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
It is worth noting that Bohemians 1905 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 61% | Bohemians 1905 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.633 / defence 1.320 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.072 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.243. Karviná's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Karviná games / 58 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 53%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 1.89. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Bohemians 1905 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Karviná 1.06 / Bohemians 1905 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.633 / def 1.320 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.072 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Karviná 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 23% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Karviná and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.07x) against Karviná's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
23%
4.42
24%
4.18
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.82
1.76
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.42
23%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.61
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Karviná and 1.76 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 6D 17L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.11 PPG from 28 outings (7W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Karviná against 1.11 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 4W 2D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 5W 6D 17L in their last 28 games (0.75 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Karviná's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Karviná or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
3
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 50%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Karviná) and 50% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Karviná's matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Karviná and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 1-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.76 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.63 / defence 1.32 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 53%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 61%, Bohemians 1905 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.75 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.