Slovácko 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plzen make the trip to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to face Slovácko in Czech Liga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Slovácko (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Slovácko have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slovácko are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plzen have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Plzen have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Plzen arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Slovácko edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Slovácko 4–1 Plzen — a Slovácko win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slovácko goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 48% versus Plzen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 44% | Plzen 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovácko surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.11 xG and Plzen 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.921 / defence 1.159 | Plzen attack 1.186 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.261. Plzen bring a tight defence (rating 0.785, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Slovácko's projected output down. Data: built from Slovácko's last 58 games and Plzen's last 58.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 23% | Draw 26% | Plzen 51%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 4.33 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 1.96. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slovácko's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovácko 50% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 23% | Draw 26% | Plzen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Slovácko 1.11 / Plzen 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.921 / def 1.159 | Plzen attack 1.186 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Plzen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Plzen xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Plzen kick off?
Slovácko vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Plzen?
Slovácko 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Slovácko vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Plzen part of?
Slovácko vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 23% chance of winning, Plzen a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovácko and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovácko vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.92x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.19x) against Slovácko's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 58 games and Plzen's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
23%
4.33
26%
3.85
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.84
1.73
Plzen xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
4%
24.53
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.73 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 24W 17D 22L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 36W 11D 16L from 63 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovácko.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 8D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 17W 6D 8L from their last 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.95 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
Slovácko (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Slovácko vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 24W 17D 22L in their last 63 games (1.41 PPG), while Plzen have gone 36W 11D 16L in their last 63 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.61 PPG; Plzen away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Plzen in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won Plzen 1-4 Slovácko on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
4
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 4, Plzen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Plzen 1-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Plzen?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 45%, Plzen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Slovácko) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Slovácko's recent matches and 61% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Slovácko's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Slovácko's recent matches and 81% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and Plzen finished level at 1-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.11 xG and Plzen 1.73 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 23% | Draw 26% | Plzen 51%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 44%, Plzen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.