Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Teplice have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Teplice have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 1 for Teplice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–1 Teplice — a Teplice win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Teplice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Teplice 52%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Mlada Boleslav recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.32 xG and Teplice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.128 / defence 1.152 | Teplice attack 0.878 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.241. Teplice's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 57 games and Teplice's last 57.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Draw 21% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.65 | Draw 4.85 | Teplice 5.29. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.32 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 80% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Draw 21% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.32 / Teplice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.128 / def 1.152 | Teplice attack 0.878 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Teplice xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 60% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.13) and Teplice's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.88x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 57 games and Teplice's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
60%
1.65
21%
4.85
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.57
1.25
Teplice xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
10%
10.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
2%
53.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.25 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 18D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.24 PPG from 59 outings (19W 16D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.24 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 12W 10D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while Teplice have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.59 PPG; Teplice away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Mlada Boleslav, 66% for Teplice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Mlada Boleslav and 72% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 66% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 72% of Teplice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 76% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.32 xG and Teplice 1.25 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 60% | Draw 21% | Teplice 19%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Teplice 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.32 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.