České Budějovice 2-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates České Budějovice at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Slovácko at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Slovácko away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
České Budějovice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for České Budějovice, 3 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–4 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Slovácko 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Slovácko 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.66 xG and Slovácko 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.025 / defence 1.031 | Slovácko attack 0.932 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Data: 59 České Budějovice games / 59 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 47% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 26%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 3.85. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Slovácko lead the H2H ledger, but České Budějovice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Slovácko 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 47% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG České Budějovice 1.66 / Slovácko 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.025 / def 1.031 | Slovácko attack 0.932 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Slovácko xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovácko kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
České Budějovice 2 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovácko part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 47% chance of winning, Slovácko a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.02x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.71
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.87
1.20
Slovácko xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.20 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 17W 10D 34L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Slovácko's form line: 23W 16D 22L from 61 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 1.00 PPG, Slovácko on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (13W 3D 14L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 17W 10D 34L in their last 61 games (1.00 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 23W 16D 22L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovácko away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.40 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.23 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Slovácko in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 47%, Slovácko 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (České Budějovice) and 47% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 37% of games; Slovácko in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 47% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of České Budějovice's matches and 47% of Slovácko's.
Do České Budějovice and Slovácko tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice and Slovácko finished level at 2-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.66 xG and Slovácko 1.20 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Slovácko attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 47% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 26%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Slovácko 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.00 PPG, Slovácko 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.