Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Huzhou Olympic Sports Center plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Hangzhou Greentown's favour (2.60 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 0W, Henan Jianye 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 54% versus Henan Jianye 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Henan Jianye 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.60 xG and Henan Jianye 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.049 / defence 0.855 | Henan Jianye attack 0.917 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.163. Data: 59 Hangzhou Greentown games / 59 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 21%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 4.76. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Henan Jianye lead the H2H ledger, but Hangzhou Greentown carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Henan Jianye 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.60 / Henan Jianye 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.049 / def 0.855 | Henan Jianye attack 0.917 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Henan Jianye xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 53% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.05) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.92x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.98
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.51
0.91
Henan Jianye xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
4%
23.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.91 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 30W 17D 12L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye's form line: 24W 16D 19L from 59 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.49 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (17W 6D 6L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 30W 17D 12L in their last 59 games (1.81 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Henan Jianye away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.97 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 38%, Henan Jianye 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 38% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 31%; Henan Jianye in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 48% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 38% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Henan Jianye 3-0 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.60 xG and Henan Jianye 0.91 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Henan Jianye landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Henan Jianye attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 53% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 21%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 54%, Henan Jianye 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.81 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.