Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Tianjin Teda.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Jun 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 2–3 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 41% versus Tianjin Teda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Tianjin Teda 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.035 / defence 1.129 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.876 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.173. Tianjin Teda bring a tight defence (rating 0.721, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Qingdao Jonoon's projected output down. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 27 games and Tianjin Teda's last 60.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 35% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.85 | Draw 3.51 | Tianjin Teda 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 40% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 away games).

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