Changchun Yatai 0-3 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 42%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng meet at Changchun's People Stadium in Super League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Shandong Luneng have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shandong Luneng are 0.90 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Changchun Yatai's games and 70% of Shandong Luneng's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have the stronger record — 4 wins to Changchun Yatai's 0, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Jun 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 1–4 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Shandong Luneng 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.32 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.043 / defence 1.020 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.945 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.139. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 61 games and Shandong Luneng's last 61.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 31%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.40 | Draw 3.62 | Shandong Luneng 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.32 / Shandong Luneng 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.043 / def 1.020 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.945 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Shandong Luneng xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 3 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 42% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.04) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.94x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 61 games and Shandong Luneng's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.62
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.42
1.10
Shandong Luneng xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.10 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 19D 21L from 61 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 39W 12D 10L across 61 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across their last 30 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.25 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 19D 21L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 39W 12D 10L in their last 61 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.43 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-0 Changchun Yatai on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
8
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2025: Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 60%, Shandong Luneng 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Changchun Yatai) and 53% (Shandong Luneng).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Changchun Yatai's games and 60% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 63% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 0-3 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.32 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 31%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.