Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Meizhou Kejia face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 19 October 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2023, ended 0–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 55% versus Hangzhou Greentown 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 57% | Hangzhou Greentown 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.177 / defence 0.987 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.491 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.145. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Meizhou Kejia games / 60 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 36% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 41%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Oct 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 36% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.57 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.177 / def 0.987 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.491 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Hangzhou Greentown xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 19 October 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 36% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.18) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
36%
2.78
23%
4.32
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.25
1.69
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.69 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 23W 12D 25L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 31W 17D 12L from 60 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (16W 4D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 13W 11D 5L from 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.82 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 12D 25L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.79 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Meizhou Kejia at 62%, Hangzhou Greentown at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Meizhou Kejia and 62% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 62% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.18 / defence 0.99 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.49 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 36% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 41%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.