Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Thursday 19 October 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Meizhou Kejia's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jun 2023, ended Meizhou Kejia 0–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 55% versus Hangzhou Greentown 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 57% | Hangzhou Greentown 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Meizhou Kejia surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Hangzhou Greentown have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.177 / defence 0.987 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.491 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.145. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack rating of 1.491, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 61 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 60.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 36% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 41%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.78 | Draw 4.32 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Meizhou Kejia's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 70% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 October 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 36% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.57 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.177 / def 0.987 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.491 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Hangzhou Greentown xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Thursday 19 October 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 36% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.18) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 61 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
36%
2.78
23%
4.32
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.25
1.69
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.69 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 23W 12D 25L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 31W 17D 12L from 60 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 4D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 13W 11D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.82 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 12D 25L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.79 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 24 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Jul 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown won Hangzhou Greentown 4-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2025: Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Meizhou Kejia at 62%, Hangzhou Greentown at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Meizhou Kejia and 62% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 62% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 79% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.18 / defence 0.99 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.49 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 36% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 41%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.