Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Dalian Aerbin.

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Full Analysis

Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UK time.

Current Form

Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Dalian Aerbin (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Jul 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 1–1 Dalian Aerbin — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Dalian Aerbin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 46% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.016 / defence 1.339 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.701 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 28 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 62.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 51% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 25%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Aerbin 4.00. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 40% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 50% (last 10 away games).

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