Henan Jianye 1-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 7W 2D 1L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Henan Jianye's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 48% versus Changchun Yatai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Changchun Yatai 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.06 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.338 / defence 0.722 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.861 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Henan Jianye games / 62 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 12%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Changchun Yatai 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 46% | xG Henan Jianye 2.06 / Changchun Yatai 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.338 / def 0.722 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.861 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Changchun Yatai xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 68% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.86x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.13
12%
8.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.81
0.74
Changchun Yatai xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
8.11
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
2%
63.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.74 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 16D 20L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.30 PPG from 61 outings (20W 19D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.30 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Henan Jianye's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.39 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 25W 16D 20L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 19D 22L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.83 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
4
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Henan Jianye) and 60% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 60% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.06 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.74 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.34 / defence 0.72 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 12%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Changchun Yatai 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.49 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.