Beijing Guoan 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Qingdao Jonoon at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Workers' Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 71% versus Qingdao Jonoon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 47% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.33 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.328 / defence 0.944 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.777 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.214. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Beijing Guoan games / 17 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 11%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Jonoon 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.33 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.328 / def 0.944 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.777 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 68% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.33) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.83
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.23
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
10%
10.33
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
92.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.89 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 6W 7D 4L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 9L across 17 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.88 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 7 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 62%, Qingdao Jonoon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beijing Guoan) and 50% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beijing Guoan's games and 62% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.33 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.33 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 11%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 47%, Qingdao Jonoon 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.