Changchun Yatai 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Changchun Yatai welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Changchun's People Stadium in Super League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 22 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Changchun Yatai) versus 1.70 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 57% versus Shanghai Shenhua 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 57% | Shanghai Shenhua 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.148 / defence 1.230 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.946 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.214. Shanghai Shenhua bring a tight defence (rating 0.738, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Changchun Yatai's projected output down. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output up. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 51 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 51.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.18 | Draw 3.29 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 18 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.27 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.148 / def 1.230 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.946 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Shanghai Shenhua xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 18) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 31% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 51 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
31%
3.18
30%
3.29
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.68
1.41
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.41 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 15D 18L from 51 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 12L across 51 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.35 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 9W 7D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 11W 8D 6L across their last 25 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.20 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 games (1.35 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.36 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 June 2025: Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 56%, Shanghai Shenhua 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Changchun Yatai) and 40% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 40%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 52% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 64% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.41 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.95 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 31% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 57%, Shanghai Shenhua 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.35 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.