Tianjin Teda 3-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Tianjin Teda's 1.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Tianjin Teda edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended Tianjin Teda 2–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Tianjin Teda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 42% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.69 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / defence 0.993 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.670 / defence 1.727. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.204. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.727 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 50 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 76% | Draw 16% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.31 | Draw 6.10 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 13.37. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (76%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 70% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 18 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 76% | Draw 16% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Tianjin Teda 2.69 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / def 0.993 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.670 / def 1.727 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 21 July 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 3 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 18) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 76% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.67x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 50 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.10
7%
13.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.49
0.80
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.10
16%
Draw
13.37
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
7%
14.76
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
197.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.80 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 20W 17D 13L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form line: 12W 5D 33L from 50 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 3D 16L from their last 23 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.88 scored and 2.32 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 17D 13L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 5D 33L in their last 50 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.65 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 21 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 July 2023: Tianjin Teda 3-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 52%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Tianjin Teda) and 65% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 48% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 65% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 78% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 3-3 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.69 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 76% | Draw 16% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 7%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 42%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.