Beijing Guoan 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beijing Guoan face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beijing Guoan welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 16 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Beijing Guoan) versus 1.40 (Wuhan Three Towns). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 62% versus Wuhan Three Towns 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 64% | Wuhan Three Towns 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.89 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.400 / defence 0.992 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.332 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.226. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.400 — their 1.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack rating of 1.332, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 50 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 50.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 32%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.31 | Draw 4.11 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.89 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.400 / def 0.992 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.332 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Wuhan Three Towns xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 43% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.40x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 50 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
43%
2.31
24%
4.11
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.51
1.62
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.62 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 13D 14L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 2.02 PPG from 50 outings (30W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.64 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 12W 7D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 2.12 points per game from their last 25 away games (16W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.32 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 23W 13D 14L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 30W 11D 9L in their last 50 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.72 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 27 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 June 2026: Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beijing Guoan and 64% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 80% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.89 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.40 / defence 0.99 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.33 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 32%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 64%, Wuhan Three Towns 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.64 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.