Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Dalian Aerbin travel to Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Chengdu Better City's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dalian Aerbin away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Dalian Aerbin 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended Chengdu Better City 0–0 Dalian Aerbin — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 47% versus Dalian Aerbin 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 47% | Dalian Aerbin 51%). Note also that Dalian Aerbin surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Chengdu Better City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.39 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.023 / defence 0.850 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.756 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.214. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 51 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 51.

Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 49% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 19%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.04 | Draw 3.11 | Dalian Aerbin 5.34. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 50% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 40% (last 10 away games).

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