Red Bull Salzburg 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Red Bull Salzburg) versus 0.70 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Red Bull Salzburg: 6 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2026, ended Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 TSV Hartberg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 62% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 57% | TSV Hartberg 44%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Red Bull Salzburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.998 / defence 1.017 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.975 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.73 | Draw 3.38 | TSV Hartberg 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Red Bull Salzburg 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 70% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 32 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 / TSV Hartberg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.998 / def 1.017 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.975 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
TSV Hartberg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 32) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 37% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.38
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.33
1.14
TSV Hartberg xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.14 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 29W 18D 16L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 20W 23D 20L from 63 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Red Bull Salzburg on 1.67 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 8D 7L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 13D 8L from their last 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 29W 18D 16L in their last 63 games (1.67 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 23D 20L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 1.81 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 61%, TSV Hartberg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 42% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 42%; TSV Hartberg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 42% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 42% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 58% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-3 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 57%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.67 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.