Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 3W 2D 5L at Red Bull Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Red Bull Salzburg) versus 0.90 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Red Bull Salzburg: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for TSV Hartberg, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–3 with TSV Hartberg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Red Bull Salzburg 69% and TSV Hartberg 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 62% | TSV Hartberg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.984 / defence 1.016 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.030. Data: 22 Red Bull Salzburg games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 44% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 27%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 70% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 44% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 / TSV Hartberg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.984 / def 1.016 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 44% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 6W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.46
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.46
1.05
TSV Hartberg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.05 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 13W 9D 10L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 10W 12D 10L from 32 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. TSV Hartberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Red Bull Salzburg on 1.50 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 6W 7D 3L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Pre-Season
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 12D 10L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 1.38 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 62%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 38% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 44%; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 38% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 44% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 27%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 62%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.