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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sturm Graz's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 0 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Sturm Graz 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.902 / defence 0.890 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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