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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.40 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 4W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 60% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 54% | Rapid Vienna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.30 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.972 / defence 0.936 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.910 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 27%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Rapid Vienna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Sturm Graz 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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