Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.40 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 3W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 60% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 54% | Rapid Vienna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.30 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.972 / defence 0.936 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.910 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 27%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Rapid Vienna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Sturm Graz 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 32 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sturm Graz 1.30 / Rapid Vienna 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.972 / def 0.936 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.910 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Rapid Vienna xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Group - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 43% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Record (8 meetings): Sturm Graz 3W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 4W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.97x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.91x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.39
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.28
0.98
Rapid Vienna xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.98 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 34W 14D 15L from 63 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 24L across 63 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 8D 7L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 7W 11D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 34W 14D 15L in their last 63 games (1.84 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 24W 15D 24L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.81 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 58%, Rapid Vienna 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sturm Graz's games and 71% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.30 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.98 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 27%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Rapid Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.