Vizela 1-4 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Vizela (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boavista have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Vizela against 0.40 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Vizela 0W, Boavista 0W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 42% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 42% | Boavista 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.23 xG and Boavista 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.745 / defence 1.018 | Boavista attack 0.853 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.273. Vizela's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Vizela games / 50 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 39% | Draw 28% | Boavista 33%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Boavista 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Vizela 50% | Boavista 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 39% | Draw 28% | Boavista 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Vizela 1.23 / Boavista 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.745 / def 1.018 | Boavista attack 0.853 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Vizela (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Boavista xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Boavista kick off?
Vizela vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Boavista?
Vizela 1 - 4 Boavista.
Where is Vizela vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Boavista part of?
Vizela vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 39% chance of winning, Boavista a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vizela and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Boavista?
Record (4 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 4 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Vizela and Boavista in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Boavista (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.74) and Boavista's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.85x) against Vizela's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.52
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.34
1.11
Boavista xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vizela and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vizela and 1.11 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 14D 23L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.22 PPG from 50 outings (16W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Vizela against 1.22 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vizela's home form reads 6W 7D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (6W 3D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Boavista in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Boavista have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Boavista away?
Vizela's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.04 PPG; Boavista away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Vizela or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Boavista in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 1-4 on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
5
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Boavista?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Boavista have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Boavista 2-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 42%, Boavista 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 62% (Boavista). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vizela have failed to score in 42% of games; Boavista in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vizela's recent matches and 62% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vizela's matches and 62% of Boavista's.
Do Vizela and Boavista tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Boavista in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Boavista run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Vizela 1-4 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.23 xG and Boavista 1.11 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Boavista attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 39% | Draw 28% | Boavista 33%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 42%, Boavista 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.06 PPG, Boavista 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.