Chaves 0-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sporting CP at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Sporting CP at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chaves — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Chaves at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sporting CP have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sporting CP away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sporting CP — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Chaves's last 10 home games and Sporting CP's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chaves, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Feb 2023, ended Chaves 2–3 Sporting CP — a Sporting CP win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Sporting CP 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 48% | Sporting CP 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chaves surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Sporting CP have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.59 xG and Sporting CP 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.060 / defence 1.308 | Sporting CP attack 1.270 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.236. Sporting CP have an above-average attack rating of 1.270, which lifts their away xG to 2.05. Chaves's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sporting CP's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 50 games and Sporting CP's last 50.
Result probabilities: Chaves 30% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 49%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.33 | Draw 4.70 | Sporting CP 2.05. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.59 / 2.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chaves's last 10 home games and Sporting CP's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chaves 70% (last 10 home games) | Sporting CP 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 30% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Chaves 1.59 / Sporting CP 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 1.060 / def 1.308 | Sporting CP attack 1.270 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Sporting CP xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chaves vs Sporting CP FAQs
What time does Chaves vs Sporting CP kick off?
Chaves vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Chaves 0 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Chaves vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Sporting CP part of?
Chaves vs Sporting CP is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 30% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Chaves and Sporting CP will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chaves vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chaves's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chaves's last 50 games and Sporting CP's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
30%
3.33
21%
4.70
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.64
2.05
Sporting CP xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
13%
7.78
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
4%
25.89
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chaves vs Sporting CP Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Chaves and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Chaves and 2.05 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chaves come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 12D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.28 PPG from 50 outings (36W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chaves's home form reads 8W 6D 10L across their last 24 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 1.92 points per game from their last 24 away games (14W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.16 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
Chaves (Home) vs Sporting CP (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chaves
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Chaves vs Sporting CP Form FAQs
What form are Chaves and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 36W 6D 8L in their last 50 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.25 PPG; Sporting CP away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Chaves or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sporting CP have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jan 2024, when Sporting CP won Chaves 0-3 Sporting CP.
Chaves's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Chaves vs Sporting CP H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Sporting CP?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chaves have won 1, Sporting CP have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Sporting CP last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2024: Sporting CP 3-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 67%, Sporting CP 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chaves) and 62% (Sporting CP). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chaves vs Sporting CP Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chaves and Sporting CP matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chaves's games and 58% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chaves and Sporting CP matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chaves's matches and 62% of Sporting CP's.
Do Chaves and Sporting CP matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Chaves's recent matches and 71% of Sporting CP's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Chaves 0-3 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.59 xG and Sporting CP 2.05 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sporting CP outscored their 2.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Sporting CP attack 1.27 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 30% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 49%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 48%, Sporting CP 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 17
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →