Chaves 0-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Sporting CP at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Sporting CP have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sporting CP — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chaves, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2023, ended 2–3 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Sporting CP 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 48% | Sporting CP 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.59 xG and Sporting CP 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.060 / defence 1.308 | Sporting CP attack 1.270 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.236. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Chaves games / 50 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 30% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 49%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Sporting CP 2.04. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Sporting CP 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 30% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Chaves 1.59 / Sporting CP 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 1.060 / def 1.308 | Sporting CP attack 1.270 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Sporting CP xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Sporting CP kick off?
Chaves vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Chaves 0 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Chaves vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Sporting CP part of?
Chaves vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 30% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Chaves and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Sporting CP?
Record (2 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Chaves and Sporting CP in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chaves's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
30%
3.33
21%
4.70
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.64
2.05
Sporting CP xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
13%
7.78
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
4%
25.89
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Chaves and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Chaves and 2.05 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chaves come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 12D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.28 PPG from 50 outings (36W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Chaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chaves's home form reads 8W 6D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 1.92 points per game from 24 outings (14W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.16 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 36W 6D 8L in their last 50 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.25 PPG; Sporting CP away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Chaves or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Sporting CP runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jan 2024, when Sporting CP won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Sporting CP?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Sporting CP have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Sporting CP 3-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 67%, Sporting CP 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chaves) and 62% (Sporting CP). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chaves's games and 58% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chaves's matches and 62% of Sporting CP's.
Do Chaves and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Chaves 0-3 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.59 xG and Sporting CP 2.05 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sporting CP outscored their 2.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Sporting CP attack 1.27 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 30% | Draw 21% | Sporting CP 49%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 48%, Sporting CP 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.