GIL Vicente 1-1 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estrela make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIL Vicente have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
Estrela (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.20 for Estrela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Estrela in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 56% versus Estrela 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 56% | Estrela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.65 xG and Estrela 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.155 / defence 0.931 | Estrela attack 0.813 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.273. Data: 50 GIL Vicente games / 16 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 54% | Draw 24% | Estrela 22%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Estrela 4.55. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 60% | Estrela 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 54% | Draw 24% | Estrela 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG GIL Vicente 1.65 / Estrela 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.155 / def 0.931 | Estrela attack 0.813 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Estrela xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Estrela kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Estrela kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Estrela?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Estrela.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Estrela part of?
GIL Vicente vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 54% chance of winning, Estrela a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both GIL Vicente and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estrela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Estrela in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Estrela (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.16x the league average against Estrela's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estrela's attack (0.81x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.09
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.62
0.96
Estrela xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
23.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.96 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 3D 10L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela's form line: 5W 5D 8L from 18 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.11 for Estrela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estrela in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Estrela in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Estrela have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Estrela away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.88 PPG; Estrela away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estrela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
1
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estrela?
From 6 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Estrela have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Estrela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Estrela?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 62%, Estrela 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIL Vicente) and 38% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Estrela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of GIL Vicente's games and 62% of Estrela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 38% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Estrela tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Estrela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Estrela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 17, as GIL Vicente and Estrela drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.65 xG and Estrela 0.96 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Estrela attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 54% | Draw 24% | Estrela 22%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 56%, Estrela 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Estrela's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.00 PPG, Estrela 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.