Casa Pia 0-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Famalicao have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.80 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Famalicao 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 40% | Famalicao 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.02 xG and Famalicao 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.692 / defence 1.005 | Famalicao attack 0.765 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.224. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Casa Pia games / 50 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 36% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Famalicao 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 50% | Famalicao 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 36% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Casa Pia 1.02 / Famalicao 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.692 / def 1.005 | Famalicao attack 0.765 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Famalicao xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Famalicao kick off?
Casa Pia vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Casa Pia 0 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is Casa Pia vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Famalicao part of?
Casa Pia vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 36% chance of winning, Famalicao a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Casa Pia and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
Record (2 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Famalicao in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Famalicao (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.69x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.77x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.20
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.96
0.94
Famalicao xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.94 for Famalicao, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 12D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.26 PPG from 50 outings (17W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.26 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Casa Pia's home form reads 7W 7D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Famalicao away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.17 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Famalicao in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
2
Draws
4
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Famalicao have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 42%, Famalicao 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Casa Pia) and 50% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 38% of games; Famalicao in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 54% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Casa Pia's recent games and 50% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Famalicao tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Casa Pia 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.02 xG and Famalicao 0.94 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Famalicao outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Famalicao attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 36% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 40%, Famalicao 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.20 PPG, Famalicao 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.