Famalicao 2-2 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Famalicao welcome Chaves to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 January 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chaves have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Famalicao at 1.00 PPG versus Chaves's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1, Chaves 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Chaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Famalicao trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Chaves trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 47% versus Chaves 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | Chaves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.73 xG and Chaves 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.827 / defence 1.092 | Chaves attack 0.697 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.197. Chaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Famalicao games / 49 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 57% | Draw 24% | Chaves 19%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Chaves 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 60% | Chaves 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 57% | Draw 24% | Chaves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Famalicao 1.73 / Chaves 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.827 / def 1.092 | Chaves attack 0.697 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Chaves xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Chaves kick off?
Famalicao vs Chaves kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 7 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Chaves?
Famalicao 2 - 2 Chaves.
Where is Famalicao vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Chaves part of?
Famalicao vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 57% chance of winning, Chaves a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Famalicao and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Chaves?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Chaves 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Chaves in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.83) and Chaves's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.18
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.64
0.91
Chaves xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
29.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.91 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao's recent record stands at 17W 11D 21L from 49 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 23L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 1.27 PPG, Chaves on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 12W 3D 9L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.04 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Chaves in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Chaves have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Chaves away?
Famalicao's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.62 PPG; Chaves away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
1
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Chaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Chaves 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Chaves?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 42%, Chaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 42% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 29% of games; Chaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Famalicao's recent matches and 33% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 42% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Chaves tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chaves in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Chaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 16, as Famalicao and Chaves drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.73 xG and Chaves 0.91 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chaves outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Chaves attack 0.70 / defence 1.39, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 57% | Draw 24% | Chaves 19%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, Chaves 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.27 PPG, Chaves 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.