Arouca 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Arouca face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Arouca — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Arouca's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Benfica have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Arouca.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Jan 2023, ended Arouca 0–3 Benfica — a Benfica win.
Benfica have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benfica trading profile (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 37% versus Benfica 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 33% | Benfica 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 0.82 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.868 / defence 1.006 | Benfica attack 1.105 / defence 0.617. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.196. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.617, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Arouca's projected output down. Data: built from Arouca's last 49 games and Benfica's last 49.
Result probabilities: Arouca 23% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 4.35 | Draw 3.54 | Benfica 2.05. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arouca 30% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 23% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Arouca 0.82 / Benfica 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.868 / def 1.006 | Benfica attack 1.105 / def 0.617 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Benfica xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arouca vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 23% chance of winning, Benfica a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.87x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Arouca's last 49 games and Benfica's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
23%
4.35
28%
3.54
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.15
1.33
Benfica xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arouca vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Arouca and 1.33 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 39W 6D 4L across 49 games — 2.51 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 12W 4D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 19W 3D 3L across their last 25 away games, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.24 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
Arouca (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Arouca vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Benfica have gone 39W 6D 4L in their last 49 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.60 PPG; Benfica away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Benfica in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won Benfica 5-0 Arouca.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Arouca vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Arouca 28% BTTS, Benfica 28%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Arouca) and 48% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Arouca keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benfica in 64%; Arouca have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arouca vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arouca and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Arouca's recent matches and 28% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Arouca and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Arouca's recent games and 48% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Arouca's recent matches and 60% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 0-3 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.82 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Arouca fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.10 / defence 0.62, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 23% | Draw 28% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 33%, Benfica 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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