Eintracht Braunschweig 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Eintracht Braunschweig are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 2 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 43% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 54% | 1. FC Magdeburg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.62 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.960 / defence 0.952 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.946 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.299. Data: 35 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 35 1. FC Magdeburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 46% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Magdeburg 26%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.85. Eintracht Braunschweig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Braunschweig are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Braunschweig 20% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 46% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Magdeburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.62 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.960 / def 0.952 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.946 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.17
1. FC Magdeburg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 46% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.96) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.54
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.79
1.17
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.17 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Eintracht Braunschweig have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 5D 19L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 9W 12D 14L from 35 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.31 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 9W 12D 14L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.47 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
4
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 9 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-6 Eintracht Braunschweig.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 41%, 1. FC Magdeburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 41% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 29% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 47% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 41% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-3 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.62 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.17 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 46% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Magdeburg 26%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 54%, 1. FC Magdeburg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.