Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-0 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Karlsruher SC at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 1D 3L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karlsruher SC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Karlsruher SC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karlsruher SC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.30 PPG, Karlsruher SC 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Karlsruher SC, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fortuna Düsseldorf and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Karlsruher SC trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and Karlsruher SC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Karlsruher SC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.096 / defence 0.932 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.070 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.320. Data: 35 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 35 Karlsruher SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 39% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 34%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Karlsruher SC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Karlsruher SC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 39% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 / Karlsruher SC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.096 / def 0.932 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.070 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Karlsruher SC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 0 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 39% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W | Draws 2 | Karlsruher SC 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.10x the league average against Karlsruher SC's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.79
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.74
1.31
Karlsruher SC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.31 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 19W 8D 8L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 16W 10D 9L from 35 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.86 PPG, Karlsruher SC on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 2.03 scored and 1.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Karlsruher SC in 63%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
Karlsruher SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 19W 8D 8L in their last 35 games (1.86 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 16W 10D 9L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.76 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Karlsruher SC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5
Draws
0
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, Karlsruher SC have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 65%, Karlsruher SC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 59% (Karlsruher SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 59% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 59% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fortuna Düsseldorf's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Karlsruher SC finished level at 0-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Karlsruher SC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 39% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 34%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Karlsruher SC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.