1. FC Köln 5-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig make the trip to RheinEnergieSTADION to face 1. FC Köln in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at RheinEnergieSTADION, 1. FC Köln have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Eintracht Braunschweig have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 56% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 39% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.71 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.850 / defence 1.229 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.980 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.250. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 1. FC Köln games / 36 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 40% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.71 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.850 / def 1.229 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.980 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Köln 5 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 41% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Braunschweig's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.98x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.86
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.21
1.50
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
6%
16.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.50 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 36 games, going 5W 13D 18L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.06 PPG from 36 outings (11W 5D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.06 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 4W 4D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (4W 1D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.08 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 5W 13D 18L in their last 36 games (0.78 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 5D 20L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Köln's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.89 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (1. FC Köln) and 67% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 44% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Eintracht Braunschweig 5-0 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.71 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.50 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.98 / defence 1.36, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 39%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 0.78 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.