Hamburger SV 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hamburger SV face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to Volksparkstadion to face Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Volksparkstadion this season.
Hertha BSC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Hamburger SV's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 57% and Hertha BSC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 60% | Hertha BSC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.95 xG and Hertha BSC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.109 / defence 0.946 | Hertha BSC attack 1.044 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.305. Data: 35 Hamburger SV games / 35 Hertha BSC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 24%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 4.17. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | Hertha BSC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Hamburger SV 1.95 / Hertha BSC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.109 / def 0.946 | Hertha BSC attack 1.044 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Hertha BSC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC part of?
Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 52% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): Hamburger SV 3W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.04x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.17
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.24
1.29
Hertha BSC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
3%
29.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.29 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 18W 7D 10L from 35 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 13L across 35 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.37 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 12W 0D 5L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 2.00 scored and 1.74 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 74%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.12 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Hertha BSC 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 47%, Hertha BSC 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Hamburger SV and 76% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Hamburger SV's games and 76% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hamburger SV's matches and 76% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.95 xG and Hertha BSC 1.29 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Hertha BSC attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 24%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 60%, Hertha BSC 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.74 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.